Megatrend: Geopolitical Shifts ~ Navigating the Future of American Foreign Policy From Trump to Tomorrow

What trends will shape the future of international affairs and global stability?

It’s a question that I’ve pondered with the advent of each new administration since my days specializing in American foreign policy and Soviet studies in graduate school. Today, the urgency of this question resonates even more as we navigate the uncertainties of the current political environment and contemplate what kind of world will be left for future generations.

This column, therefore, focuses on one particularly significant and pertinent megatrend: the shifting landscape of global power.

In earlier essays, I wrote about developments in what I defined as “World War III” ~ one of which is the “clash between Western liberal democracies and three radical regimes (Iran, China, and Russia) that seek regional hegemony and global domination. Now, we’ll examine the scope of a more extensive geopolitical transformation, and we’ll assess how a second Trump administration could influence its dynamics and reshape the global order.

Understanding geopolitical shifts

Geopolitical shifts refer to changes in the balance of power and influence among countries or regions. Historically, power was concentrated among a few dominant nations. For instance, in the 20^th century, the U.S. and the Soviet Union were the main players in a bipolar world order. Today, that balance is evolving into a more complex, multipolar system.

The era of U.S. unipolar dominance ~ where the global political and economic system has been largely shaped by American power ~ appears to be nearing its end. Already, a radical shift toward a multipolar world is underway. This transformation, characterized by a redistribution of power among multiple influential states, is reshaping global alliances and altering the competitive edge of the United States. Countries like China and India are rising as significant global powers, challenging the traditional dominance of the U.S. and European nations. Meanwhile, new alliances and conflicts continue to reshape the global landscape.

For example, the strategic positioning of countries in relation to energy resources, trade routes, and technological supremacy is redefining partnerships and rivalries. These shifts are not just about military power but also about who leads in economic influence, innovation, and cultural clout. As global powers shift, economic policies, trade agreements, and even the availability of goods and services are affected. This can impact everything from the price of your groceries to the stability of your job.

The U.S. and China at odds: A new Cold War

The rivalry between the United States and China is at the heart of today’s global power dynamics…and the second Trump administration could magnify or exacerbate this competition. (PROJECT 2025, the purported game plan for the next Trump Administration, unequivocally focused on China as the top priority for U.S. defense planning.)

Central to this clash of powers is Trump’s commitment to economic decoupling ~ a strategy aimed at altering economic ties with China to reduce dependency and bolster national security. Trump’s first term underscored this approach with tariffs, sanctions on Chinese tech firms, and a broader push for economic self-reliance. While such measures safeguarded strategic industries, they also imposed significant costs, both economic and geopolitical.

For instance, in the semiconductor industry, Trump’s sanctions on Huawei and ZTE not only disrupted China’s tech sector and American companies like Intel and Qualcomm but also aimed to curb China’s growing influence in 5G. These actions run the risk of creating competing technological ecosystems, reduced compatibility between digital technologies, and roadblocks to innovation and shared research.

Similarly, American farmers bore the brunt of retaliatory tariffs, especially in soybeans and pork, with countries like Brazil and Argentina stepping in to meet China’s needs. These examples highlight how geopolitical shifts have tangible effects on industries and livelihoods.

The economic reverberations of these policies extended far beyond tariffs. Global supply chains were upended, forcing companies to reconsider their manufacturing strategies. The trade war’s effects were especially apparent in industries reliant on Chinese components, such as electronics and automobiles, where manufacturers had to absorb higher costs or relocate operations to countries like Vietnam and India.

The Belt and Road Initiative

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure and trade project, has significantly expanded Beijing’s global influence. This initiative has enhanced China's soft power and prompted many nations to reconsider their strategic alliances.

For the U.S., countering China's growing influence through the BRI requires a nuanced approach ~ strengthening strategic partnerships while ensuring that allies with economic ties to China don’t feel marginalized. However, a second Trump administration seems poised to adopt a more aggressive stance, proposing a blanket tariff of up to 20% on imports and up to 60% or 100% on goods brought in from China and inciting a trade war. This strategy risks alienating and polarizing U.S. allies that are closely linked to China’s economy and forcing them to take sides. It also means and hitting American consumers with increased prices.

Apparently, we’re about to see a repeat of these policies…on steroids.

Countering China: America's strategy in a second Trump term

Under the second Trump administration, economic decoupling from China will likely accelerate, marked by a more assertive approach to countering China’s global influence. The consequences for American industries could be severe as these protectionist policies will undermine competitiveness and disrupt supply chains. Decoupling could pressure allies to align with U.S. measures under the threat of secondary sanctions, potentially leading to increased fragmentation and weakening multilateral institutions such as NATO and the World Trade Organization. Such a strategic shift could create opportunities for rival powers to redefine international norms and risk greater instability in global governance.

Despite these disruptions in the global order, certain global trends seem inevitable. Demographic changes, technological advancements, and environmental imperatives continue to drive the world toward a multipolar order. Nations that prioritize investments in AI, renewable energy, and emerging technologies will set future standards and shape the next phase of global governance.

The rise of new economic models

Economic models are the systems or structures by which a country manages its economy. The traditional models of capitalism and socialism have long defined how nations operate. However, the past few decades have seen the emergence of new approaches driven by technology, environmental concerns, and shifts in social values.

The global push for sustainability represents another pivotal frontier. One significant trend is the move toward “green” or sustainable economics. This model prioritizes environmental health alongside economic growth, pushing for policies that reduce carbon emissions and promote renewable energy. Countries that adapt to these models not only help the planet but often gain a competitive edge by creating jobs in new industries.

While a Trump administration’s rollback of environmental regulations and withdrawal (again!) from international agreements could slow U.S. progress toward carbon neutrality, international coalitions and private-sector initiatives will likely persist in advancing climate goals. This suggests the U.S. risks losing competitive ground in the green economy if it steps back from global leadership.

Another development is the “sharing economy,” where companies like Uber and Airbnb have changed the way we think about ownership and service provision. These models leverage technology to create platforms that connect providers and consumers more directly. While they offer convenience and flexibility, they also raise questions about job security, regulation, and income inequality.

Also, nations are rethinking the notion of the interconnectedness of national economies ~ i.e., economic globalization. Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions are driving nations to reconsider their reliance on distant partners. Concepts like “reshoring” (bringing manufacturing back home) and regional trade agreements are gaining traction as ways to balance efficiency with resilience.

Why these trends matter

Understanding these shifts and models can’t be just the domain of policy experts and economists. They matter because they shape the future we all live in. Geopolitical changes can influence everything from your travel plans to the availability of high-tech products. New economic models could mean more opportunities for green jobs, innovative services, or, conversely, economic instability as old systems are disrupted.

Inevitability

Is there an inevitability to these trends? The short answer, I believe, is: Yes.

The arc toward a multipolar world, technological divergence, and climate resilience appears unalterable by any single administration.

But, of course, the trajectory is influenced, to some extent, by current policy choices. The actions of the Trump administration could influence the speed, shape, and depth of these developments, delaying or distorting their path, but not stopping them.

Independent of the next Administration, these megatrends are driven by profound systemic forces: demographic shifts, the march of technology, and environmental imperatives. While a Trump presidency might add volatility and tension to global affairs, the overarching trends will endure.

In future years, the true test for the U.S., and for any nation, will be its ability to lead ~ not only react ~ in this evolving landscape. The stakes are high, and the world will judge whether the U.S. rises to the occasion or watches from the sidelines as the new power centers shape the future. The world stands at a threshold, with choices that could resonate for generations. The question remains: Will the United States lead wisely, adapt to new realities, and maintain its influence, or will it retreat from the world stage, leaving others to forge the path ahead?